The Dolphins are placing their chips on Tua Tagovailoa. General manager Chris Grier said as much at a news conference on Monday, explaining that the club had “good conversations” with Tagovailoa’s reps, the goal being “to have him here long term playing at a high level.”
Because Grier also said the sides hadn’t yet talked money, a reporter pointed out that the going rate for franchise quarterbacks is $50 million or more per year. Before Grier could comment (or lose his lunch), coach Mike McDaniel jumped in with a McDanielism.
“Is he representing Tua?” McDaniel said.
It temporarily lightened the mood, but the fact remains this is one of the most important decisions the Dolphins have ever made. The implications could stretch into the next decade, both financially and competitively. While such a choice seemed somewhat obvious at the midpoint of the season — pay the man! — the way the year ended for both Tagovailoa and the Dolphins suggests answers are trickier to come by today.
Because of this, it has been suggested that the Dolphins word their contract offer to include an “exit ramp” should he prove to be not all that they believe him to be.
It would be a mistake.
In fact, it would be a mistake to include it in their initial offer in the first place.
For two seasons, McDaniel and the Dolphins have done nothing but nurture Tagovailoa. They’ve told him they believe in him. That his future and theirs are tied together, till January or February do them part. A wise man once said that in the NFL, pay little attention to what teams say. Pay plenty of attention to what teams do.
Well, it’s time for the Dolphins to do what they say.
If they’re as certain as they say they are, it’ll be right there in black and white on the paper they slide across the table. Any capitulation will raise doubt for Tagovailoa over all the faith the Dolphins and McDaniel have expressed. Remember that conversation McDaniel had with his new quarterback before he even landed in South Florida?
Tua Tagovailoa feasted on NFL's weaker teams
But …
Before going any further, let’s back up a step and examine whether Grier and the Dolphins are justified in banking their future on Tagovailoa (and let’s face it: Grier’s future is very much tied to this call).
Tagovailoa made the Pro Bowl as the AFC starter this season. He set career highs in 2023 for completions, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns and, of course, games played. He also had a career high of 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles. All season, McDaniel has preached the simple goal of seeing the team improve. The Dolphins went 4-4 down the stretch, with Tagovailoa unable to surpass 250 passing yards in six of those games.
Amid injuries to both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Tagovailoa did not turn in a 300-yard performance following the Nov. 19 game against the Raiders. In frigid conditions in Kansas City, he threw for 199 yards with a 63.9 passer rating as the Dolphins exited the postseason on a three-game losing streak.
There’s a mountain of evidence that the Dolphins under Tagovailoa are a good team, but not good enough. They went 10-1 against non-playoff opponents and 1-6 against playoff teams. Against non-playoff teams, Tagovailoa completed 71.7% with 22 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 110.7 passer rating. Against playoff teams, his numbers fell off considerably: 62.8%, eight TDs, seven INTs and an 80.8 rating.
Yes, injuries to his supporting cast were a major factor, but injuries are going to happen to one extent or another. And remember, the Dolphins went “all in” by acquiring players such as Hill and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, which is why they’re more than $40 million over the salary cap.
Tagovailoa, therefore, is 0-1 in his career in the postseason. In six weeks, he’ll turn 26. At the same age, Dan Marino was 3-3 in the postseason including a trip to the Super Bowl. It’s unfair to compare QBs to Marino, but at $50 mil per year, you have to expect a certain level of excellence.
Surprise: Tagovailoa didn't miss a single game
Tagovailoa doesn’t have the cannon arm of Justin Herbert, but he has flung it far enough to consistently spring Hill for six points. His arm is plenty strong.
The other major concern, of course, is durability. Every prediction about the Dolphins in 2023 was couched with a disclaimer of “if Tua can stay healthy.” Injuries cost Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow seven games and the Chargers’ Herbert four. It was an awful year for quarterbacks’ health, one that ought to end any whining about the league being overly protective of these men. The irony is that Tagovailoa was one of the few to start all 17 games. What does that mean moving forward? Maybe everything, maybe nothing. Argue whichever side you choose, at the risk of your words coming back to haunt you.
McDaniel said he’s looking for Tagovailoa to continue “exponential” growth in his game. That sounds both great and nebulous. I’d focus on two specifics: Not getting frustrated on Sunday afternoons, which leads to forcing the ball into coverage and interceptions. And second, being the Marino-like reason the Dolphins pull out games they have no business winning, almost to the point where it’s almost expected. The ending of the Chiefs game in Germany, including missing a wide-open Cedrick Wilson and the fumble of an off-center but catchable snap, can’t happen.
When it comes to quarterbacks, the NFL has an increasingly short attention span. The Dolphins spent about seven years trying to figure out if they had the answer in Ryan Tannehill, with injuries and bad offensive line play always mucking up the situation. Players and coaches are lucky to get half that now. Tagovailoa has been a starter for 3½ years, and here we are at a crossroads, with everyone having their own idea of what Tagovailoa’s potential really is.
Joe Burrow helps set the salary structure for franchise QBs
Moneywise, Burrow sits atop the NFL throne with a total package valued at $275 million. His five-year average is $55 million but the key number — fully guaranteed money — is $146.5 million. The deal can be voided for Burrow to become a free agent in 2030, the year many QBs in this stratosphere would hit the market.
More: Top 10 Miami offseason priorities as Dolphins try to be great in 2024 | Schad
Second is Herbert, who will always be compared to Tagovailoa because they were drafted with consecutive picks. A year ago, people were certain the Dolphins went the wrong way, but since then, the pendulum has swung. Herbert’s average is $52.5 million with $133.7 million guaranteed. So the pattern is clear.
One more example comes out of Baltimore, where MVP-to-be Lamar Jackson raised eyebrows by representing himself but came away with an average of $51 million per and $135 million guaranteed, plus the ability to void the deal for 2028.
By now you might be wondering why Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been mentioned. His deal with the Chiefs dates back to 2020, which shows how much the landscape has changed in just three years. Mahomes averages $45 million per but his guarantee is a mere $63 million and he won’t become a free agent until 2032. This tells us that the arrow on QB salaries is clearly pointing north and if the Dolphins are certain Tagovailoa is their man, it would behoove them not to stall.
First, though, they must make certain they’ve got the right man.
Dolphins reporter Hal Habib can be reached at hhabib@pbpost.com. Follow him on social media @gunnerhal.
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This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Is Tua Tagovailoa the long-term answer at quarterback for Miami Dolphins?
